[arin-ppml] debunking the myth that Moore's law helps

michael.dillon at bt.com michael.dillon at bt.com
Fri Dec 18 18:11:48 EST 2009

> > Is it really reasonable to expect future b/w demands to the home to 
> > keep going up and up? What drivers do you see for this?
> You can never have "too much bandwidth"   That's like having
> "too much" sex.

Predicting the future by means of linear extrapolation rarely works
for very long. Reality is not like that.

For example <http://www.healthymind.com/s-index.html> lots of people
have "too much" sex and go into therapy and rehab clinics as a result.

I suppose their might be some freaks out there who want to install
wall-sized 24x7 telepresence screens on every room in each of their
houses in LA, Aspen, New York and the Hamptons, but these will be way
out on the right hand side of the normal curve.

I would expect that the "average" home bandwidth will be less than a
single realtime HD video screen because it will be cheaper to buy that
with the overnight movie download service, than it will be to have the
two realtime HD feed service.

--Michael Dillon

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