[arin-ppml] debunking the myth that Moore's law helps
kkargel at polartel.com
Fri Dec 18 14:42:42 EST 2009
> -----Original Message-----
> From: arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net [mailto:arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net] On
> Behalf Of Lee Dilkie
> I wonder how much b/w to the home is actually needed and if there is a
> natural demand "limit". It seems to me that once b/w to the home reaches
> realtime HD video there's not really much more that is required (except
> for separate channels for the kids, of course). If you think about it,
> there's only historically been two drivers for b/w throughout the
> history of communications. Ignoring the original low b/w uses, morse
> code, teletype, etc, we have realtime voice and realtime video. For 80
> years, video has stabilized at about 3 Mhz b/w and it's only with the
> advent of HD that we have exceeded that (is that true? I'm not sure,
> considering compression and all).
> Is it really reasonable to expect future b/w demands to the home to keep
> going up and up? What drivers do you see for this?
> Just curious.
HD video to the home over IP is already a reality. MPEG4 will help this, but still figure 10Mbps of multicast IP per HD stream, and it is not beyond reality for a single family residence to have four TV's and a couple of PVR's all watching different channels.. so that could be over 60Mbps right there..
Add in some security video streams, a couple of game stations running.. a few piddly VOIP connections, a few instances of Microsoft update, junior pirating music and daddy downloading porn and you are starting to build up a pretty significant bandwidth requirement.
As more bandwidth is available the apps will grow to consume it. Nature abhors a vacuum. There has to be some law of supply and demand that says that the amount of bandwidth required will grow to exceed what is available.
Remember the famous quote "Nobody will EVER need more than 640K of RAM..."
> Michel Py wrote:
> > Pretty good indeed. This also means that by the first day ISPs start to
> > deploy GigE for residential Internet service, the typical home "router"
> > will already be capable of sucking this GigE pipe dry.
> > The days of forklift upgrades may not be over, after all.
> > Michel.
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