[arin-ppml] Policy relevant assumptions post depletion

[Joe Maimon]

All,

I believe that assumptions and expectations of how providers, customers, 
users and the ARIN community will react to IPv4 depletion and scarcity 
as it is experienced widely (if unevenly) across the spectrum in ever 
greater degree are relevant to choices of appropriate policy.

I would like to hear yours. Here are mine, for what they may be worth.

I strongly doubt providers will turn up users en-mass without IPv4 
access. They will use some form of system to ensure that new subscribers 
will continue to be able to access the IPv4 internet and appear to be 
part of the IPv4 internet.

I accept that that systems that are put in place to continue to provide 
that access could grow the population that is inaccessible from the IPv4 
internet.

I do not view as valid the assumption that there will be an emergent 
population unable to access the IPv4 internet.

I further assume that providers will be able to provision customers 
needing accessibility from the IPv4 internet for quite some time after 
depletion affects their provisioning of customers needing access to IPv4 
internet, fueled in part by scavenging inefficient utilization, reuse of 
globally unique addresses used prior to implementation of CGN's and the 
like, or even with 4->6 address family translation systems.

I assume that need will likely be weighed by compensatory or monetary value.

I believe ARIN policy should do its utmost in continuing to make 
available IPv4 addresses continually throughout this period, in order to 
attempt to even the field between organizations who have large amounts 
of scavenge-able, reusable or otherwise obtainable resources and those 
who have less or none.

I hope that the systems employed by providers to continue to provision 
customers during depletion and scarcity will include IPv6 access, thus 
spurring its network effect by continually increasing the chances, 
instances and occasions where the use of IPv6 is preferable to IPv4.

I do not expect that the only practical and desirable way to take 
advantage of IPv6 populations will be dual stacking in entirety internal 
networks.

I do not expect operator of systems with large target user populations 
to ever willingly allow themselves to be accessible only via IPv6.

I believe there to be an about even chance that these events will unfold 
with accompanying furor, noise and angst, enabling agendas that can be 
detrimental to our collective one. ARIN policy should attempt to preempt 
this.

I welcome your comments and feedback.

Joe