[arin-ppml] debunking the myth that Moore's law helps

[Joel Jaeggli]

I think it's awesome that the PPML lists has suddenly sprouted router
silicon experts. It would be interesting to hear your projections for
the fib capacity of 100Gb/s ethernet centric forwarding engines circa
this time 2011.

joel

Michel Py wrote:
> There were several mentions of Moore's law lately. And with them, some
> implied comments that scalability issues would eventually be solved by
> it (assuming that it keeps working, which it has so far).
> 
> This is just not true, and here's why: yes, Moore's law is still in
> effect. But guess what: link speed / bandwidth/ TE requirements / etc
> have evolved also, possibly even faster than Moore's law.
> 
> Not so long ago, a 7500 was hot stuff BFR. A T1 was fast, a DS-3 was
> smoking, and an OC-12 was something only a telco would have.
> 
> Today, a T1 is slow; most consumer broadband offerings fitting a family
> budget are better. I have T1-speeds on my cell phone, and the CPU that
> runs said phone is probably more powerful than anything that ran a 7500.
> A DS-3 is not smoking anymore either, as FTTH and metro Ethernet have
> brought equivalent speeds (in urban areas) to the masses for a few
> hundred bucks a months. As of OC-12, it is a bit out of style too, when
> the typical FTTH home link is GigE and the name of the game in any data
> room is 10GigE.
> 
> So yes, Moore's law is still working. Does it help? Not much, as the
> operating requirements tend to be a moving target that adapts to
> whatever is available on the market.
> 
> Michel.
> 
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