[arin-ppml] Routing table growth, was Re: IPv4 is depleted today

michael.dillon at bt.com michael.dillon at bt.com
Wed Sep 3 15:00:26 EDT 2008

> > 0.4% of the Alexa top 500...
> I understand the point you're trying to make here, but sometimes the  
> elephants have ideas their own. Unless we introduce some 
> contradictory  
> altruism assumptions in here, it's not clear why the 
> elephants -- most  
> of whom have big interests in both access and content -- will be  
> inclined to automatically empower the legions of mice, given the  
> option of not empowering them.

It's also not the way the world works. We want exponential growth
of the IPv6 Internet. To achieve this, paradoxically, we do NOT
want big content providers to enable v6 in droves. Instead we want
lots and lots of mice, more each month than the month before. That
will build momentum over a period of years, and then suddenly, 
when we are barely ready for it, the big leap of the exponential
curve will hit us as big content sites start switching on IPv6.
The fact is, that in nature, which is where we exist, an exponential
curve starts with a long run-up which slowly gathers momentum for
a considerable period of time. During that run-up, measurements
of growth are confusing because they only show a small uplift
over linear growth and this could be the result of measurement 
error. But the factors behind the numbers, are working towards
the big leap. Hundreds of elephants dipping their toes in the water
don't register much more impact than thousands of mice diving in
headfirst. But when the elephant is comfy and strides forward,
you will notice it.

People are spending entirely too much time on side issues to IPv6
deployment as *THE* public Internet protocol. It *WILL* happen, it
*WILL* be a lot of work, there will be some false starts (already have
been for that matter), but it is going to happen, because there is
nothing else out there competing with IPv6.

Also, consider this. It is now clear that the American empire which
grew during the early years of the 20th century, is now in decline.
The future will be a much more multipolar world in which the USA
does not dictate the way forward. The BRIC countries, Brazil, Russia,
India, China, and their partner states, are a lot more economically
powerful and influential than the pure numbers would suggest. China
has a lot of effort going into IPv6, and this will find its way into
a lot more devices and software going forward. The past few years have
seen a real flourishing of innovation, not just imitation, in China.
At the same time, Russia, has a strong government that is steadily
growing its economy and standard of living. Internet access is a
of that development. They definitely have the brainpower to make
the IPv6 Internet more secure than the IPv4 one was. India is no longer
just a place where you send menial clerical work. It is now becoming an
IT powerhouse that is attracting highly skilled and experienced Indian
immigrants back home. Big pipes are going into India to support this
network-centric working. And Brazil has always intervened to support
it's own internal IT industry. Sooner or later, it will do so again.

In particular, Russia, India and China have very UNDERdeveloped IPv4
infrastructure, and they are close together, practically neighbors, so
can expect to see various kinds of Internet deployment joint projects in
next few years to pull this off. They will have to do it with IPv6
there ain't enough IPv4 addresses left. The writing is on the wall.

The Alexa 500 are irrelevant to these countries. They build their own
such as Baidu in China, Rambler in Russia, and so on. The non-English
Internet, which most of you will never see, is becoming a far bigger
in how we transition to IPv6.

--Michael Dillon

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