[arin-ppml] Is this more desired than a TransferPolicy? Needinput
jrhett at svcolo.com
Tue Nov 18 17:18:52 EST 2008
Everyone seems to forget just how long it took the world get to around
to using IP as the de facto protocol. I'm guessing most of you
weren't working in the field when a dozen different protocols were
No business runs out and does a massive investment in new
infrastructure without some cost basis for doing it. Very few
businesses have a cost basis for making this change right now, and I
doubt that this is going to change many minds until very, very deep
into IPv4 exhaustion.
As I have expressed clearly to members of the ARIN board of trustees
-- I fully expect ARIN and others to come under assault from
businesses who are hurt by IPv4 exhaustion, and don't feel inclined to
invest their own money in a migration with no obvious benefit to
themselves. You can argue about "progress" all you want, but the
benefit to any given business at this time is non-existent. This is
why clear policy for reclamation is necessary. Without it, ARIN has
no legal ground to stand on for continued "stewardship" of the ARIN-
region IP space.
On Nov 18, 2008, at 2:01 PM, Olivier MJ Crepin-Leblond wrote:
> "Joe Maimon" <jmaimon at chl.com> wrote:
> a set of assumptions detailed below, in response to Ted Mittelstaedt.
> The fact is that anybody can write or assume anything since none of us
> has a crystal ball.
> So these are my assumptions:
> - the world will change tomorrow.
> - Today's internet access will be different tomorrow.
> - v4 is fine for today's use, but it clearly isn't for tomorrow's
> - Progress cannot be stopped - it's the sad truth.
> oh, and I forget not:
> "Failing to prepare (for v6) is to prepare for failure"
> Olivier MJ Crepin-Leblond, Ph.D
> Global Information Highway Ltd
>> Ted Mittelstaedt wrote:
>>> The fact is that once IPv4 has run out, it is in the best
> interests of
>>> -everyone- on the Internet to
>>> switch to IPv6 as quickly as possible. As soon as the Internet
>>> a tipping point of IPv6
>>> switchees, then there will be a stampede of IPv4 holders to IPv6
>>> then there will be PLENTY
>>> of worthless abandonded IPv4 available for those orgs who believe
>>> the rest of the world will
>>> continue to dual-stack forever, just for them.
>> Those are one set of assumptions.
>> Another set of assumptions about what happens upon runout are:
>> a) most people will prefer to keep using ipv4 without changing
>> unless they have an urgent need to grow
>> b) they will grow by trying to obtain ipv4 by any practical or cost
>> effective method available, such as black market or internal
>> and by pressure on registries for grey/white markets and
>> and other interesting ideas such as reclaiming class e
>> c) users will treat ipv6 only as the least desirable option
>> d) ipv6 will not become desirable over rfc1918 ipv4 for the masses
>> seamless operation with the rest of the ipv4 network is commonplace
>> e) given all above, a "tipping" point may not be reached many years
>> until then ipv6 is just a slightly more usable form of rfc1918 from
>> end-user perspective
>> f) people who are happy with their ipv4 will feel no need to impose
>> dual stack on their user population until they ask for it and there
> is a
>> real and practical benefit for them to do so and the downsides to
>> network arent outweighed by these benefits
>> g) ipv4 will remain scarce and valuable for years to come
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