[arin-ppml] fair warning: less than 1000 days lefttoIPv4 exhaustion

michael.dillon at bt.com michael.dillon at bt.com
Mon May 5 03:59:10 EDT 2008


 > Geoff disclaims certainty in the 1000 days scenario...and of course
most clear see the numbers and estimates for what they are.
 > But, given that we can see the bottom of the pool and + or - 1 1/2
years, it's 3....then that should offer very little consolation to those
who think 3 is concrete.
 > The range 1.5-4.5 is perhaps scarier....

 Last year, less than 300 days ago, this counter showed 1300 days and it
was publicised a lot. I checked it several months later and the number
had gone up to more than 1400, I believe. Now suddenly it is down to
1000!!!
 
It almost seems like we consume addresses slower than average for a
while, then a large allocation goes out and we have suddenly consumed
more than the average amount. Since we have no way of knowing when
larger allocations will happen perhaps the 1.5 year figure is more
likely than the 3 year figure.
 
In any case, the exact runout date is irrelevant. What is more important
is knowing the nearest possible date for runout since that is the date
you want to target with your IPv6 readiness plans. If you are IPv6 ready
in 1.5 years, then it doesn't matter when IPv4 addresses run out. If you
need 3 years to become IPv6 ready, then you have a problem.
 
--Michael Dillon
 
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