[ppml] Prefix availability under 2008-2: IPv4 Transfer Policy Proposal

[Scott Leibrand]

Leo Vegoda wrote:
> On 10/03/2008 18:05, "Scott Leibrand" <sleibrand at internap.com> wrote:
> 
> [...]
> 
>>>>>> Why would anyone have to wait for address space?  If they're willing to
>>>>>> pay the market price for it, there should always be space available.
>>>>> That's a very bold statement. Is it based on research?
>>>> Yeah, about 200 years of economics research.  It turns out to be true
>>>> for anything, ranging from "true love" to "oil" to "IP addresses."
>>> Are you suggesting that there will be a steady flow of prefixes of all sizes
>>> or making a comment on economic theory?
>> I took his comment as a general comment on economic theory.
> 
> I suppose everyone can interpret the phrase "steady flow" differently. Maybe
> I should have been more precise. I am not aware of any published research on
> what the churn rate is likely to be and would be grateful for pointers.

I don't think anyone has published research on IPv4 transfer markets. 
Ben is ARIN's expert on the subject, perhaps he can comment.

My own amateur-economist take on it is that, initially, supply (of 
currently unrouted space) will exceed demand, so price will stay low, 
and the quantity demanded (your "churn rate") will be only slightly 
lower than it is today (with price ~= 0).  Price will then start to rise 
as the easy supply is put into production, bringing new, more expensive 
supply online, and reducing demand.

-Scott