[ppml] NANOG IPv4 Exhaustion BoF
tvest at pch.net
Thu Mar 6 16:55:21 EST 2008
On Mar 6, 2008, at 4:26 PM, Geoff Huston wrote:
> Tony Li wrote:
>> |It is probably worthwhile remembering that (at least in the ARIN
>> |we're talking about life after the exhaustion of the IANA IPv4 free
>> |pool. The definition of "hoarding" will likely be subject to some
>> |For example, there is a well known university sitting on a /8. Is
>> |that hoarding?
>> Of course not. But say if Warren Buffet decided to buy up every
>> drive up prices and then dole them out with an eye dropper, that
>> distort the market.
> And drive the industry to IPv6 deployment.
I think we all wish this is how things will go.
But it could just as easily go the other way, and either vector could
easily be pre-empted by major unwelcome surprises.
Randy's very educational demonstrations have revealed that there's a
long way to go before anything is 100% certain.
In the mean time, new entrants are not going to be the ones to
pioneer this effort, because they'd still have to wait for the big
guys to get their act together in order to be able to benefit much
from entering the business. So if anyone is to lead, it will be the
big guys. Do we believe that they're holding out until they know they
can monetize their future IPv4 surplus assets? Do we believe that
they're simply unable to afford the transition unless they can
extract large sums from the IPv4 trade? Who is going to provide those
sums, if not other big operators? Or do we think that adding a seven
digit number to the cost of starting up will fill the gap without
sparking internal rebellions and external interventions?
One could also say that OPEC and increasing "real" oil scarcity is
leading to the adoption of hydrogen fuel cell technology. In fact one
could have said that back in the early 1970s too; we could still be
saying in 20-30 years from now. Burning bridges behind you when the
future is still uncertain just doesn't seem like prudent planning to
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