[arin-ppml] Q1 - ARIN address transferpolicy: whythetriggerdate?

[Tom Vest]

Hi Owen,

Thanks for the question.
For the most part, the answer was anticipated by Paul.
If a policy like this gets approved, and the reserved pool is large  
enough to last long enough so that no one -- no active IPv4-based  
operator or outside speculator -- could even conceive of a time  
horizon over which exploitation of the asymmetry/bottleneck  
opportunity might be profitable, then perhaps this won't be a problem.

For that, the reserved pool would have to be big enough, at least, to  
accommodate transitional resources for all new entrants, assuming the  
fastest plausible rate of new entry, for the longest conceivable  
transition to de-facto full IPv4-IPv6 substitutability -- the point  
when everything important is transparently accessible by IPv6-only  
networks.

To begin estimating that quantity, I could derive the historical new  
entrant rate for the RIPE region, because I can distinguish the  
initial allocations from the subsequent allocations -- but I would  
have to defer to somebody else for the ARIN, et al rates...

In either case, what would count as a plausible new entry rate for the  
next (x)  years, relative to the historical rates -- what is the  
biggest bottleneck likely to be (address resources, routing capacity,  
transport facilities, etc.)? And what's the largest plausible (x)  
until de-facto substitutability is achieved, given (at least) the  
strategic considerations above?

TV

On Jun 24, 2008, at 11:15 AM, Owen DeLong wrote:

> Tom,
> 	Absent the recent policy proposal to create a reservation
> for IPv6 Transitional Technologies in the ARIN IPv4 free pool,
> I would agree with you.  However, wouldn't that policy mitigate
> what you are saying below? (assuming it gets adopted)
>
> Owen
>
> On Jun 24, 2008, at 6:55 AM, Tom Vest wrote:
>
>> There is also the matter of asymmetrical dependence and bargaining
>> power (detailed ad nauseam last week).
>>
>> Unless something changes, on the day after free pool exhaustion and
>> every day thereafter, "incumbent" IPv4-based networks will be able to
>> unilaterally decide whether/when they want to be transparently
>> interoperable with native IPv6 networks, and they will be able to
>> unilaterally act to make that possible, e.g., by going dual-stack,
>> renumbering, or operating a symmetrical 6/4 gateway.
>>
>> Unless something changes, on the day after free pool exhaustion and
>> every day thereafter, new IPv6-only networks will need to  
>> interoperate
>> with the universe of incumbent IPv4 networks. However, they will NOT
>> be able to unilaterally act to make that possible as long as that
>> requires at least some IPv4, which at that point will only available
>> from those incumbent networks, or from "pure speculators".
>>
>> That asymmetry is what will drive the price of IPv4 up and up, and
>> that increasing profit potential and bargaining power -- which is  
>> just
>> an artifact of the lingering IPv4 bottleneck between new IPv6  
>> networks
>> and everything still accessible only via IPv4 -- is what will
>> incentivize incumbent IPv4 networks/IPv4 dealers to delay their own
>> shift to transparent interoperability for as long as possible.
>>
>> Aspiring to be the last-mover will be the only rational strategy in
>> the environment that an IPv4 resource transfer market will create.
>>
>> But maybe rationality will take a holiday :-\
>>
>> TV
>>
>> On Jun 24, 2008, at 9:21 AM, Kevin Kargel wrote:
>>
>>> Don't forget the fact that IPv6 is not yet a perfect or mature
>>> service.
>>> Delaying IPv6 implementation will avoid the costs involved with
>>> development and debugging of local networks while letting others do
>>> the
>>> dirty work.  I am not advocating this, just recognizing a reality.
>>> The
>>> forward thinking administrators that want to make a difference in  
>>> the
>>> world will jump in and get it done, the profit driven enterprises  
>>> will
>>> sit back and wait until everything is easy or unavoidable.
>>>
>>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net [mailto:arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net]
>>> On
>>> Behalf Of Lee Dilkie
>>> Sent: Tuesday, June 24, 2008 6:44 AM
>>> To: michael.dillon at bt.com
>>> Cc: ppml at arin.net
>>> Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] Q1 - ARIN address transferpolicy:
>>> whythetriggerdate?
>>>
>>>
>>> michael.dillon at bt.com wrote:
>>>>> As with many other technologies, there is a substantial last-mover
>>>>> advantage to going dual-stack or single-v6.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On what do you base this opinion?
>>>>
>>>> --Michael Dillon
>>>>
>>>>
>>> Moore's Law, one would think. Delaying purchase of networking
>>> equipment
>>> will yield better performance for lower cost.
>>
>>
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>