[arin-ppml] Q1 - ARIN address transferpolicy: whythetriggerdate?

[Tom Vest]

There is also the matter of asymmetrical dependence and bargaining  
power (detailed ad nauseam last week).

Unless something changes, on the day after free pool exhaustion and  
every day thereafter, "incumbent" IPv4-based networks will be able to  
unilaterally decide whether/when they want to be transparently  
interoperable with native IPv6 networks, and they will be able to  
unilaterally act to make that possible, e.g., by going dual-stack,  
renumbering, or operating a symmetrical 6/4 gateway.

Unless something changes, on the day after free pool exhaustion and  
every day thereafter, new IPv6-only networks will need to interoperate  
with the universe of incumbent IPv4 networks. However, they will NOT  
be able to unilaterally act to make that possible as long as that  
requires at least some IPv4, which at that point will only available  
from those incumbent networks, or from "pure speculators".

That asymmetry is what will drive the price of IPv4 up and up, and  
that increasing profit potential and bargaining power -- which is just  
an artifact of the lingering IPv4 bottleneck between new IPv6 networks  
and everything still accessible only via IPv4 -- is what will  
incentivize incumbent IPv4 networks/IPv4 dealers to delay their own  
shift to transparent interoperability for as long as possible.

Aspiring to be the last-mover will be the only rational strategy in  
the environment that an IPv4 resource transfer market will create.

But maybe rationality will take a holiday :-\

TV

On Jun 24, 2008, at 9:21 AM, Kevin Kargel wrote:

> Don't forget the fact that IPv6 is not yet a perfect or mature  
> service.
> Delaying IPv6 implementation will avoid the costs involved with
> development and debugging of local networks while letting others do  
> the
> dirty work.  I am not advocating this, just recognizing a reality.   
> The
> forward thinking administrators that want to make a difference in the
> world will jump in and get it done, the profit driven enterprises will
> sit back and wait until everything is easy or unavoidable.
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net [mailto:arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net]  
> On
> Behalf Of Lee Dilkie
> Sent: Tuesday, June 24, 2008 6:44 AM
> To: michael.dillon at bt.com
> Cc: ppml at arin.net
> Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] Q1 - ARIN address transferpolicy:
> whythetriggerdate?
>
>
> michael.dillon at bt.com wrote:
>>> As with many other technologies, there is a substantial last-mover
>>> advantage to going dual-stack or single-v6.
>>>
>>
>> On what do you base this opinion?
>>
>> --Michael Dillon
>>
>>
> Moore's Law, one would think. Delaying purchase of networking  
> equipment
> will yield better performance for lower cost.