[arin-ppml] Q1 - ARIN address transfer policy: why the trigger date?

[Joe Maimon]

Owen DeLong wrote:
> On Jun 20, 2008, at 10:10 AM, Paul Vixie wrote:
> 
>>>> isn't this inevitable in times of shortage, ...
>>> I don't accept your premise that a market is inevitable.

<snip>

> animal to extinction and then the market collapsed.  In this case,
> we have the option of just watching the extinction occur without
> creating a market

If there will be a market, it will happen with or without the registries.

They will get their address space one way or another, and they will 
demand it be routed. The ones paying the paychecks will demand they get 
routed. Those who refuse to route it will cease getting paychecks.

Effectively at that point ARIN is increasingly irrelevant. We dont want 
this scenario.

This is already happening, according to anecdotal evidence.

The only way this scenario doesnt play out this way is if the PHB's say, 
"sorry, according to my engineers, no ipv4, only ipv6", and the 
customers say "Great! I didnt actually want the ipv4 anyways".

Depending on who you ask, thats either possible, impossible, unlikely, 
likely, unrealistic, naive, idealistic, overly simplistic or something 
or another. We dont actually know how fast things will transition to the 
point ipv4 has no value and ipv6 has all value.

Thats the only way there wont be a market in ipv4. If it has no market 
value.

So if there will be a market, it should be one where we can make it 
attractive for those we want to participate, to participate.

In exchange we can gain by imposing a cost of participation inline with 
our needs.

The balance that needs to be struck is between cost of participation and 
the attractiveness of participation.

And if there wont be a market, its unlikely that ARIN could create one.

So coming to grips with a potential increase of value IPv4 blocks will 
have post-runout and developing an approach for it are all about 
remaining relevant, so as to attempt to ensure our needs are met.

A relevant ARIN is in all our best interests at this point.

Joe