[arin-ppml] Q1 - ARIN address transfer policy

[Leo Bicknell]

In a message written on Sat, Jun 21, 2008 at 04:52:49PM +0000, Paul Vixie wrote:
> most of ipv4 is legacy, and much of that isn't globally routed right now, and

I'm not sure either of these assertations is supported by the facts.
I believe the threshold has flipped, that RIR assigned space is
larger than legacy space.  Also, I think for the purposes of the
rest of your e-mail "legacy" isn't the right delimiter, but rather
is the space under an RSA.  Legacy holders have migrated legacy
space under both standard and legacy RSA's.   APNIC passed a policy
that required all legacy space to fall under their RSA, for instance.
I would love to have a hard number, but my feeling is perhaps 1/3
of all allocated (by anyone) space is not under any RSA at this
time.

As for much of that isn't globally routed, again, I think the number
is wrong on its face; but it's also the wrong thing to consider.
It has been documented that at least a few legacy blocks, while not
routed on the global internet, are used by extensive internal
networks.  If your premise is non-globally routed space might come
onto a market then I think you need to exclude these networks, or
at least pro-rate them in some reasonable way.

I think there are also interesting non-technical cases to consider.
For instance, several people like to talk about various large
universities with what appears to be more space than they need.
Many of these same universities are being hauled before congress
right now having to explain why they have such large endowments,
and why they should keep their tax except status.  Several are
giving away free tuition just to appear to not be abusing the system.
I would submit the last thing they would want to do right now is
take a resource provided to them by the government for free and
sell it at huge profit; that would not help their case at all.

Personally I think we might see on the order of 10-15 /8's worth
of space come onto the market in total.  I belive that could extend
overall IPv4 by 1-2 years.

-- 
       Leo Bicknell - bicknell at ufp.org - CCIE 3440
        PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/
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