[arin-ppml] Q1 - ARIN address transfer policy

[Owen DeLong]

On Jun 21, 2008, at 2:39 AM, Milton L Mueller wrote:

>
>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> To me, this assumes facts not in evidence.
>>
>> 	1.	It assumes people who realize that there is no valid
> market
>> 		for their address space will still refuse to return it
> for
>> 		recycling.
>
> A pretty reasonable assumption, given what we've seen so far. Just
> insert the word "most" between "assumes" and "people."
>
Perhaps.  OTOH, I think it is just as reasonable to assume that some
fraction of those holding address space they do not need are doing
so because they believe there will be a future value to it.

>> 	2.	It assumes that Markets will significantly increase the
> amount
>> 		of address space that is returned.
>
> Again, hard to argue with this one, and an assumption that seems to be
> tacitly supported by your own concerns about rampant speculation.
>
I'm not convinced that there is a significant amount of free address  
space
out there.  Further, I am not convinced that a market will actually  
cause
people to parcel it out.  Finally, I am not convinced that doing so will
actually help in any meaningful way.  As such, I don't think that
this is actually supported.

My concern about preventing speculation does not mean that I expect
a significant amount of address space to be made available, but, rather
that speculation could eliminate any benefit to the community that could
be achieved by a market.

>> 	3.	It assumes that the RIRs will not be able to issue any
>> 		returned space after free pool exhaustion.
>>
>
> If assumptions 1 and 2 turn out to be true, this one just flows
> logically. Although the words "not be able to issue _any_ returned
> space" is too extreme. I am sure there will be SOME returns; I am also
> sure that most of the potential returns will NOT happen without  
> economic
> incentives.

I'm not so sure that if we were to make it clear a market will not be
legitimized that those few who are holding on to resources in
the hope to realize future value will continue to retain them.
I'm sure some will.  I'm sure some will not. I think that any
statement about what fraction will fit into each category is
purely speculation at this time.

I'm not sure that many returns will occur with incentives.

Since I am not convinced that the assumptions in 1 and 2
are as assured as you are, then, it also follows that 3 is
equally invalid.

Owen