[arin-ppml] IANA IPv4 /8 burn rate.... (was Re: Stepping forward, opening my mouth and removing all doubt about)
Iljitsch van Beijnum
iljitsch at muada.com
Thu Aug 28 08:41:35 EDT 2008
On 28 aug 2008, at 1:02, Scott Leibrand wrote:
> You're missing the point. If IPv4 addresses are free (as they are
> of course everyone will use a lot of them. When they become scarce
> expensive, people will start conserving IPv4.
How is that a good thing?
IPv6 addresses are free, because whatever the cost is, after dividing
by the number of addresses you get for that cost you're left with
pretty much only zeros.
So if we start using IPv6, we can use as many addresses as we feel is
useful, while if we stay with IPv4 we should be happy to pay a lot
because then we get to say with IPv4...
Trying to stretch IPv4 is both a bad idea and pointless. It's a bad
idea because then we have to suffer address scarcity for even longer.
It's pointless because it won't work. Even with all this NAT and the
restrictive RIR rules and procedures, we ended up using up a hair shy
of 200 million fresh addresses last year, and more than 130 million so
far this year. There is no way you can turn this rate into something
that can be sustained from the deflation of IPv4 by letting out the
air that's in there.
What we should do is try to make the switch to IPv6 as painless as we
can. The most important part of that is to make it predictable: we
need to know what's going to happen in the next 5 years or so. Any
policy change means that there will be a bigger difference between
what's being predicted and what will happen, so all policy changes are
at least somewhat harmful, and potentially very harmful. So we should
only make the ones that are extremely obvious wins.
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