[ppml] FW: No transfer policies are needed

[Brett Frankenberger]

On Mon, Apr 21, 2008 at 03:09:22PM -0400, Edward Lewis wrote:
>
> My answer - all I am voicing is an opinion on what I think should be 
> done.  I don't know how to do it.  I think it is good to have 
> something that promotes more efficient use of address space.  I think 
> it is bad to declare a market.
> 
> I'm not clued enough to know if this is a futile effort.

My view:

There's a 100% chance that there will be an open IPv4 market.

There's an IPv4 black market now.

ARIN keeps the black market very small by undercutting the price of the
would-be black market sellers.  The only reason there's a black market
at all is for the population that wants addresses and is willing to pay
a lot for them but can't justify them.

Again:  The transfer policies do nothing to prevent a black market. 
ARIN keeps the black market small by undercutting the prices.

When ARIN has no more addresses, they won't be able to undercut the
market price for IPv4 addresses.  And there will be a free and open
market; addresses will be sold to anyone who can pay market price. 
(Who's going to want to go through the trouble of justifying address
space if it costs the same without a justification?  And what seller is
going to reduce the price he gets by selling only to buyers approved by
ARIN?)

Policy won't be enough to stop that; it will be ignored.

Refusing to record such transfers in ARIN's database won't be enough to
stop that; new databases will be developed.  (And providers will honor
the information at first becasue it gives them a compettitive advantage
over providers that won't, and then later because not doing so will put
them at a compatitive disadvantage to the providers that are honoring
transfers.)

I'm not saying an open IPv4 market would be a good thing or a bad
thing.  I'm saying it's an inevitable thing.

     -- Brett