[ppml] FW: No transfer policies are needed

[Leo Bicknell]

In a message written on Mon, Apr 21, 2008 at 03:40:08PM -0500, Stephen Sprunk wrote:
> There _have_ been studies on how much time we'd get by reclaiming legacy 
> space that is _currently unused_, and that usually comes out to a few 
> months, perhaps a year.  However, AFAIK, none of those studies considers 
> fractions of blocks _currently used_ that would be freed up if there were a 
> financial incentive to do so.  Nobody has that data.

No, but it's easy to make some guesses.  ARIN has produced some
numbers in the past, the easiest to find is the current years totals:

http://www.arin.net/statistics/index.html  (Second graph)

More historical data is in past presentations, and they could come
up with more data if asked.

Why is this breakdown important?  My personal believe is very few,
if any ISP's will give up IPv4 space until it is a dead product.
ISP's are generally relatively efficiently utilizing space, and
even if they aren't having it for future turn ups is more important
than a short term cash influx in most cases.

Looking at that second graph you can see the trend now is somewhere
between 1 and 15% per month.  I recall a number from a previous
meeting (but this is only from memory) that approximately 85% of
all space went to ISP's.

Per slide 3 at
http://www.arin.net/meetings/minutes/ARIN_XXI/PDF/monday/Jointstats_Nobile.pdf
ARIN has allocated from 29 /8's in total.  15% of that would be
4.35 /8's allocated to "end users".

Let's assume those end users give up 100% of the space.  ARIN
allocated 3 /8's per year for the last 3 years, so you're talking
about nearly 1.5 years of the current demand that could be supported.

That's the best case.  You can back off from 100% to whatever you
feel is reasonable.  50%?  25%?  I don't know.   However, it sure
seems to me like we're talking about a time period of under a year.

So, while on the one hand I wish there was better data; in my
personal opinion the most optimistic predictions that fall solidly
in crazy land still don't get us a useful extension of IPv4.  However
a transfer policy is likely to bring a lot of money to the table,
and by extension lawyers, opportunists, crooks, and suits to the
table.  None of which I want making technical decisions.

-- 
       Leo Bicknell - bicknell at ufp.org - CCIE 3440
        PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/
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