[ppml] Policy Proposal: Decreasing Exponential Rationingof IPv4 IP Addresses

[briand at ca.afilias.info]

Iljitch wrote:

> Have a look at the monthly data since 2006 and tell me if you can
> spot a trend:

[monthly data snipped]

Taking the monthly data, and doing sliding window averages, trends
show up pretty quickly. There's annual cyclical variances, but year
over year, each month should show the same trend.

Sliding average data on 4-month window:
4 month sliding window average ending 2006-04 is 15.05
4 month sliding window average ending 2006-05 is 15.29
4 month sliding window average ending 2006-06 is 13.81
4 month sliding window average ending 2006-07 is 14.41
4 month sliding window average ending 2006-08 is 14.15
4 month sliding window average ending 2006-09 is 14.22
4 month sliding window average ending 2006-10 is 14.40
4 month sliding window average ending 2006-11 is 14.12
4 month sliding window average ending 2006-12 is 14.00
4 month sliding window average ending 2007-01 is 14.32
4 month sliding window average ending 2007-02 is 15.99
4 month sliding window average ending 2007-03 is 16.10
4 month sliding window average ending 2007-04 is 15.70
4 month sliding window average ending 2007-05 is 16.57
4 month sliding window average ending 2007-06 is 17.09
4 month sliding window average ending 2007-07 is 17.19
4 month sliding window average ending 2007-08 is 19.29

Two observations:
- monthly averages > 14M/month
- trending upwards (however slightly)

> But in another couple of years it doesn't matter anymore because
> we'll be so close that we know for sure we'll run out soon.

Bingo. Monotonically increasing usage, and increasing rate of usage.
We will run out, and reasonably soon. Even if the rate flattens, e.g at
20M/month, we will still exhaust the pool in << 5 years. Whether it is
3, 4, or 5 years, that's still a very short time to be fully IPv6+IPv4,
for those who want to be around after IPv4 addresses are very hard to get.

Brian