[ppml] Policy Proposal: Decreasing Exponential Rationingof IPv4 IP Addresses

[michael.dillon at bt.com]

> >> A few = generally 2 or 3 years. Is that enough to call a trend?
> 
> > If your data is monthly or weekly, then yes.
> 
> Have a look at the monthly data since 2006 and tell me if you 
> can spot a trend:

Why? Geoff Huston has already done this at
http://www.potaroo.net/presentations/2007-07-23-ietf69-intarea-v4.pdf
If you look at slide 14, it seems pretty close to a linear trend. Of
course, the early stages of an exponential trend, also look pretty much
linear. In any case, that time period does not show any step changes in
the trend. The steps in the chart are the result of pent up demand being
satisfied, i.e. the short term trend appears to decrease but then
sharply rises. Over the longer term shown in slide 14, those steps
converge on a smooth trend that has show no inflection points, just a
slight uplift.

> But in another couple of years it doesn't matter anymore 
> because we'll be so close that we know for sure we'll run out soon.

And there you have a compelling business case for IPv6 deployment. 

--Michael Dillon