[ppml] Policy Proposal: 2007-12 IPv4 Countdown Policy Proposal
drc at virtualized.org
Wed Mar 21 17:47:35 EDT 2007
On Mar 21, 2007, at 1:47 PM, Stephen Sprunk wrote:
>> People don't like the fact that IPv4 is ending, period.
> IPv4 isn't ending; it's approaching the inherent limits of growth.
It isn't even that. The IPv4 _FREE POOL as administered by IANA and
the RIRs_ is being exhausted. That's all.
There is lots of unused address space locked away in legacy (and not
so legacy) allocations. I imagine that address space is increasingly
going to come into play as folks find they are not able to obtain
addresses via "traditional" means.
Looking at the Routing Analysis sent out by APNIC (as of March 16,
Percentage of available address space announced: 45.6
Percentage of allocated address space announced: 62.6
Percentage of available address space allocated: 72.8
So, about half the IPv4 address space is not yet even announced. As
real addressing costs (that is, a cost not hidden by the
administrative overhead of dealing with RIR bureaucracy) become more
apparent to address space users (read: as the black market turns
grey), I would imagine individual demand for addresses will
_decrease_ (although with the continued growth of the Internet,
aggregate demand will likely continue to increase, albeit perhaps not
as quickly). Additionally, people will likely begin to see that
client-only/firewalled machines don't really need publicly routed
address space, thus freeing up even some of the already announced
space for reuse (router jockeys, start your upgrade engines now!).
It seems irrational (to put it mildly) to me to suggest creating an
arbitrary cut-off date for IPv4 allocations. A more rational
approach would be to increase the restrictions on allocations
relative to the amount of unassigned address space remaining (that
is, rationing) in order to promote increased efficiency and
innovation in addressing technologies.
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