[ppml] Proposed Policy: IPv4 Countdown
Howard, W. Lee
Lee.Howard at stanleyassociates.com
Sat Mar 17 10:11:58 EDT 2007
> -----Original Message-----
> From: ppml-bounces at arin.net [mailto:ppml-bounces at arin.net] On
> Behalf Of william(at)elan.net
> Sent: Saturday, March 17, 2007 12:57 AM
> To: Stephen Sprunk
> Cc: ARIN PPML
> Subject: Re: [ppml] Proposed Policy: IPv4 Countdown
> On Fri, 16 Mar 2007, Stephen Sprunk wrote:
> > We do not have a choice. The IPv4 address space _will_ be
> > and it'll happen in about four years if we do nothing.
> 4-5 years are projections when IANA may not be able to fulfil
> request by RIR for new /8 which I personally think would be
> closer to 6. Most RIRs request space in advance and have some
> space in reserve up to 2 years and there is also space
> unfilled from legacy class-b blocks that RIR at that point
> will most likely start to use all together.
It all depends on how you define "run out." "Who" runs out of
IANA is unable to allocate a /8 block in the 0-223 range
in response to an RIR request
One RIR is unable to allocate a /13 in response to a
One RIR is unable to allocate a /(some number between 14
and 24) in response to a request.
No RIR is able to make allocations or assignments in
response to requests.
> > The best projections, by people who are quite authoritative on the
> > matter, is that reclamation will buy us six more months.
> It will "buy" more time - closer to 3-4 years probably. If
> you're looking for numbers, currently 65% of Class-A,B,C
> (184.108.40.206-220.127.116.11) is allocated and of that 45% is
> routed leaving 20% as not routed (which has some amount in
> use internally but I'd be surprised if its even 1/4th of
> that) which means potentially equivalent of 46 /8 blocks
> could be reclaimed right now (and those numbers will grow
> too). But if we want do do reclamation such decision better
> be made soon and process start as well.
> For reference where I calculate the numbers, see
A useful analysis, thank you.
See also http://www.arin.net/statistics/index.html
You can draw your own curve and decide what you think the burn
rate is. Note that in the last document above, the "IPv4
Allocations: RIRs to LIRs/ISPs" chart is YTD September 2006.
There will be an update in Puerto Rice, I'm sure.
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