[ppml] Proposed Policy: IPv4 Countdown

JORDI PALET MARTINEZ jordi.palet at consulintel.es
Thu Mar 15 16:50:50 EDT 2007

That's the magic of transition mechanisms such as Teredo.

Even if the NAT/CPEs are not IPv6 capable, more and more users will start
using Vista and other OSs and applications that will prefer IPv6, especially
peer to peer. It simply works. More and more IPv6 traffic is there.

99% of the time, IPv6 traffic measurements only count native IPv6. That's
wrong and many people is not realizing that they are transporting IPv6
already, much more than what they could believe.

Why IPv6 core is relevant then ? Because if you upgrade your access and core
networks, even if you don't provide native IPv6 up to the CPE, but you
provide some local transition mechanisms, then transition is used only from
the host behind the CPE to your network, instead of being used to third
party networks, which could even mean that you can even save some transit
cost if peering with other ISPs with IPv6, etc.

I've prepared a presentation about this ("The cost of NOT deploying IPv6")
and I'm working in a paper with concrete measurements.

I'm not saying that IPv6 must be deployed all across your network from day
one, but as said before, doing it on your core is typically not a big
trouble. What I'm suggesting is to add some transition boxes (a Linux or
Windows 2003 box with 6to4 and Teredo relays can make it) or enable
transition mechanisms in existing routers, example most of the routers
support 6to4 relay).

By the way, talking about residential customers, I think much more than 20%
get upgraded to Vista in 12-18 months (I'm not saying necessarily with a
legal license, but this is different issue).


> De: Stephen Sprunk <stephen at sprunk.org>
> Responder a: <ppml-bounces at arin.net>
> Fecha: Thu, 15 Mar 2007 14:28:01 -0500
> Para: <michael.dillon at bt.com>
> CC: ARIN PPML <ppml at arin.net>
> Asunto: Re: [ppml] Proposed Policy: IPv4 Countdown
> Thus spake <michael.dillon at bt.com>
>>> Imagine a day in which a lot of the network outside of the ARIN
>>> region is IPv6 and only ARIN is still using IPv4.  We'd have a
>>> network ripped in half (well, not 50/50) with our region falling
>>> behind the rest of the world (in IPvX).
>> In my version of this thought experiment, the ARIN region quickly
>> realized that roughly 90% of their infrastructure was capable of
>> running IPv6 with only a software upgrade so they did upgrade.
>> Problem solved.
> Nice thought experiment, but 99.9999% of the routers in the ARIN region (you
> know, all those boxes consumers and SoHos are sitting behind) don't support
> IPv6 and the vendors have shown absolutely no interest in adding it.  Not in
> their new products, and certainly not in the millions of old boxes out
> there.  And, even if it were available, how do you plan on reaching out to
> millions of Joe Sixpacks and Grandmas and convince them to upgrade?
> An IPv6 core is irrelevant if none of the endpoints can reach it.  Vista
> finally has v6 on by default, and maybe 20% of users will have upgraded by
> the end of this year, but they still won't be able to reach an IPv6 router
> even two hops away at their ISP.
> S
> Stephen Sprunk      "Those people who think they know everything
> CCIE #3723         are a great annoyance to those of us who do."
> K5SSS                                             --Isaac Asimov
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Bye 6Bone. Hi, IPv6 !

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