[ppml] The Choice: IPv4 Exhaustion or Transition to IPv6

Thu Jun 28 12:57:27 EDT 2007

Hi Ted,

The document is more intended to the non-technical people, but precisely to
folks that don't understand the PDP, how address distribution works, etc.
For this reason I try to avoid as much as possible going into many technical
details, including going into the PI thing.

Also the document was not intended to defend or not peer-to-peer, it just
explains what we have in the networks that typically evolve faster, and they
are residential networks, were peer-to-peer is more used than in enterprise
ones.

I think it is important to read the document as a compilation of what is
happening with IPv4, and what we can do to postpone the exhaustion and how
much those possible mitigations will offer to us and a very "crystal-ball"
like idea of what may be the cost, implications, etc.

It is not intended to be precise, because it is not possible, and I will be
making it up if I try that, but instead, waking up about what may happen and
if those parallel paths are short term or long term solutions, as I believe
is the case for IPv6.

The document is not also an IPv6 document, but definitively, especially in
the last pages, assuming that we believe that IPv6 will be the long term
solution (at least the one we have at hand right now), trying to describe
the picture for the different "phases" of the exhaustion in that case.

All what you mention about PI, renumbering and NAT, it is very related, and
I think it is applicable to what I mention in the document about the
increase in the usage of NAT and chances for kind of IPv6-to-IPv4 (even with
NAT) proxies if required.

So what I hope from this document is that it is useful to be hand off to
other folks by this community, even if it may be not directly so helpful for
techies like us, as you already said.

I'm sure it is not perfect, but I'm not convinced it will be good to turn it
into a technical document, because it is supposed that we already know about
all this.

Regards,
Jordi

> De: Ted Mittelstaedt <tedm at ipinc.net>
> Responder a: <tedm at ipinc.net>
> Fecha: Wed, 27 Jun 2007 13:08:26 -0700
> Para: <jordi.palet at consulintel.es>, <ppml at arin.net>
> Asunto: RE: [ppml] The Choice: IPv4 Exhaustion or Transition to IPv6
> 
> 
> This is a very useful document to hand off to a manager that doesen't know
> shit from shinola about networking, but it is not really a technical
> document.
> 
> The biggest glaring problems I see with it is the document makes an
> assumption that Peer to Peer is a Good Thing that everbody wants,
> and it completely ignores the desire of end user consumers to be
> provider-independent.
> 
> Your average business owner does not want peer to peer.  He does not
> want his employees running instant messaging, or online gaming or
> file sharing or any of that.  He likes NAT devices because they make it
> harder for those applications to run.  And the newer NAT devices on
> the market are getting more and more unfriendly to those protocols.
> Right now Cisco has put in protocol blocking for AIM, ICQ, IRC and a
> bunch of other of those protocols into it's high-end IOS.  It works
> by examining the packets themselves so setting the AIM client to use
> port 80 to find an AIM server so as to sidestep the blocks is useless.
> It will only be a matter of time before you will see this technology
> appear in the low-end Cisco AKA Linksys gear that sells for under $300.
> 
> Secondly, your average business owner does not want to have the IP
> handcuffs on him.  If he gets pissed off at his ISP he wants the
> ability to call another ISP competitor and move his connection to
> the competitor without the expense of renumbering his internal network.
> 
> In the United States today, the market for networking gear sold to
> the SOHO under-100 employee firms EXCEEDS the dollar value of the
> market for networking gear sold to the traditional enterprise.  Intel
> has been studying this market for years and they saw the SOHO
> exceed the enterprise sometime back in 1998 (I do not know if Intel
> ever declassified these marketing studies but I know they exist)
> that is why they got into that market.  A lot of other networking
> firms that kept focusing on the enterprise (can you say Bay Networks,
> Cabletron, etc.) went bankrupt.
> 
> It is of course, true that large enterprises with 1000's of desktops
> will want to be multihomed and thus will want to get their own AS
> and own portable numbering, and thus are very interested in the IPv6
> issues.  But they are a market minority.  The majority of businesses
> are not like this and even if all ISP's switch over to IPv6 and
> all business do likewise, your still going to see a very large demand
> for NAT devices.  Even if they are nothing more than 1:1 IPv6
> translators.
> 
> If you could rework the document to include this issue it might be
> usable to a much wider audience.
> 
> Ted
> 
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: ppml-bounces at arin.net [mailto:ppml-bounces at arin.net]On Behalf Of
>> JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
>> Sent: Wednesday, June 27, 2007 12:03 PM
>> To: ppml at arin.net
>> Subject: [ppml] The Choice: IPv4 Exhaustion or Transition to IPv6
>> 
>> 
>> Hi all,
>> 
>> I've published a document trying to analyze the IPv4 exhaustion problem and
>> what is ahead of us, considering among others, changes in policies.
>> 
>> http://www.ipv6tf.org/index.php?page=news/newsroom&id=3004
>> 
>> I guess this could be useful in order to understand possible
>> implications of
>> modifying existing policies, or setting up new ones, or even just to create
>> some debate about those changes.
>> 
>> The document was completed last April, but didn't had the time to tidy up
>> until a few days ago.
>> 
>> Regards,
>> Jordi
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
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