[ppml] alternative realities (was PIv6 for legacy holders (/wRSA + efficient use))

[John Curran]

At 5:25 PM -1000 7/31/07, Randy Bush wrote:
> > You want to connect N businesses, and presently you're assigning them
>> various block sizes from /27 down to /22... You're going to do this
>> everyday until you need to get a new block from your RIR (and
>> presently you're getting a /14 or so, based on past utilization)...
>>
>> Surprise!  Now you have to go hunt down a /24 here, maybe a /20 now
>> and then (presuming some folks factor their old assignments).
>
>i think you significantly underestimate what will be on ebay.  as drc
>said O(100) /8s.  but time will tell, won't it.

The burn rate is between 10 to 15 /8's per annum, increasing,
and while you'll see some pieces of the legacy space show up,
the extractable and reusable space will burn off under that
demand in a few short years.

>as time goes on, indeed, smaller and smaller chunks will be readily
>available.  hence the frog boil analogy drc used.

More like a convection oven roast; very quickly the largest ISP's
will face having to ignore new routes from their peers (or they'll
be seeing if they can replace every EGP router to some of "2M"
route variety, only to do it again every ninety days...)   Markets
aren't hierarchical, and there's no working backpressure model
for the imputed non-hierarchical routing cost, so it will spin apart
sooner or later.

/John