[ppml] Policy Proposal 2007-15: Authentication ofLegacyResources

[Leo Bicknell]

In a message written on Mon, Jul 30, 2007 at 05:58:02PM -0700, David Conrad wrote:
> IPv4, like land and gold and any other indestructible resource, isn't  
> magically going away on when the free pool is exhausted. All that  
> will occur is the policy regime that has existed since around 1995  
> will be forced to change since the underlying free pool that policy  
> regime was created to manage will no longer exist.

It's not going to go away, but it's importance in day to day life
will diminish.  I believe if you want to use a fixed resource as
your analogy that getting away from IPv4 is more akin to going off
the "gold standard".  Today each IP address is a brick of gold.
There is only so much gold.  Tomorrow, each IP address is a fiat
currency based on the "subnet".

Because we have gone off the gold standard does not mean gold has
no value, or that people cease to be interested in it.  However,
interest in it as a currency of our time will rapidly dwindle if
the new economy is successful.

As you said in an earlier post, it's all about business.  Running
dual stack costs more than running single stack.  Once IPv4 is
deployed "enough" there will be pressure for IPv4 to be removed
from the network.  Is that 10, 20, or 50 years from now?  I don't
know; however I am quite sure that "IPv4 forever" is 100% wrong.

Which makes this all the more interesting.  IPv4's "value" is going
to increase as people who aren't ready for IPv6 try to get what
they can when there is no more IPv4.  However, all know it will be
temporary, the higher the price the more attractive IPv6 looks.  In
essence, the faster the "price" of IPv4 shoots up, the faster the
deployment of IPv6, and the faster the crash of IPv4 as people
abandon it as too expensive.

Note: That's not to say I would support making IPv4 run out quicker.
As stewards we're better off making the price curve look like a
normal distribution than a singularity.

-- 
       Leo Bicknell - bicknell at ufp.org - CCIE 3440
        PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/
Read TMBG List - tmbg-list-request at tmbg.org, www.tmbg.org
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