[ppml] Combining Forecasts

Michael K. Smith - Adhost mksmith at adhost.com
Thu Aug 30 15:35:32 EDT 2007

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Howard, W. Lee [mailto:Lee.Howard at stanleyassociates.com]
> Sent: Thursday, August 30, 2007 11:58 AM
> To: Michael K. Smith - Adhost; David Conrad
> Cc: Public Policy Mailing List
> Subject: RE: [ppml] Combining Forecasts
> > I think it's a matter of helping the community make informed
> > decisions based upon accurate forecasts.  Although we all
> > have our specific desires about motivating people to move
> > from IPv4 to IPv6 (or not, for some), ARIN is in a position
> > to provide the data necessary to make those forecasts.  I
> > wouldn't bet the house on predictions and forecasts, but I
> > would certainly use them to support my position on migration
> > within my organization.  It's one more tool in the tool belt,
> > as it were.
> I guess that Geoff Huston's predictions are his own work, since
> they're on his potaroo site, not APNIC's site, but as an
> employee of APNIC, he is pretty well informed.  Tony Li is not
> affiliated with any RIR, but is also well-informed.
> So, could you be specific about what data are missing that
> ARIN might provide?
> Lee

If all of the RIR's officially published a historical allocation table
showing the allocations and de-allocations down to the minimum
allocation size for that RIR plus a date stamp that would be sufficient
to do a complete analysis and projection.  Perhaps this information
already exists at each of the RIR's individually?



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