[ppml] Combining Forecasts
tme at multicasttech.com
Thu Aug 30 13:05:13 EDT 2007
On Aug 30, 2007, at 12:31 PM, David Conrad wrote:
>> If we are going to use the forecasts to incent people to move from
>> to IPv6 then we should be as accurate as possible.
> It is a bit challenging to model human behavior.
> How do you model a "run on the bank"?
Modeling it is possible; predicting it is almost impossible until it
What you could maybe do is predict the probability of it happening.
It would help to have data to compare against, but I cannot really
think of any suitable data or a previous case of a run on a registrar.
There is of course a huge literature on financial panics - they seem
to be currently modeled by Markov switching models,
How applicable this is is of course unclear.
I must say that with the resources available I am not too sanguine
that we would get useful predictions even of probabilities.
> How do you model a transition of public space to NAT'd space as an
> effort towards conservation?
> Projections such as Geoff's and Tony's are useful, but I do not
> believe they are something you should bet your house on.
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