[ppml] Combining Forecasts

Marshall Eubanks tme at multicasttech.com
Thu Aug 30 13:05:13 EDT 2007

On Aug 30, 2007, at 12:31 PM, David Conrad wrote:

>> If we are going to use the forecasts to incent people to move from
>> IPv4
>> to IPv6 then we should be as accurate as possible.
> It is a bit challenging to model human behavior.
> How do you model a "run on the bank"?

Modeling it is possible; predicting it is almost impossible until it  

What you could maybe do is predict the probability of it happening.

It would help to have data to compare against, but I cannot really  
think of any suitable data or a previous case of a run on a registrar.

There is of course a huge literature on financial panics - they seem  
to be currently modeled by Markov switching models,


How applicable this is is of course unclear.

I must say that with the resources available I am not too sanguine  
that we would get useful predictions even of probabilities.


> How do you model a transition of public space to NAT'd space as an
> effort towards conservation?
> Projections such as Geoff's and Tony's are useful, but I do not
> believe they are something you should bet your house on.
> Regards,
> -drc
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