[ppml] Combining Forecasts

michael.dillon at bt.com michael.dillon at bt.com
Thu Aug 30 12:44:37 EDT 2007

> How do you model a "run on the bank"?

Hmmm... So we could run out of IPv4 addresses sooner than predicted.

> How do you model a transition of public space to NAT'd space 
> as an effort towards conservation?

Hmmm... Increased Capex and Opex could buy us time. But then we could be
spending that money on IPv6 deployment instead. Which is the lower risk
> Projections such as Geoff's and Tony's are useful, but I do 
> not believe they are something you should bet your house on.

Bet the house!?  Oh, I understand. Companies who are not already
budgeting FY 2008 Capex and Opex for IPv6 deployment, are betting the
house that those wily Asians will shift to IPv6 by Christmas, thus
freeing up the rest of the IPv4 space for plodding western companies for
the next 20 years. Now all we have to do is to figure out whether Asia
is really as far ahead in IPv6 as the pundits claim. What was that?
There are no cheap commodity IPv6 home Internet routers/gateways on the
market to date? Hmmm...

--Michael Dillon

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