[ppml] Combining Forecasts

Owen DeLong owen at delong.com
Wed Aug 29 09:11:57 EDT 2007

>> IPv4 is not a sinking ship at all.  People said Fax would be
>> totally obsolete in the 1990s, replaced by email.  Now we use
>> both. Likewise, we will continue to use both IPv4 and IPv6.
>> There will continue to be IPv4 applications, because IPv6 is
>> too heavy for some applications. Text messaging and cheap
>> cell phones did not entirely replace pagers.
> TV made radio obsolete.

And yet, I hardly ever see a car without one, advertisers still buy
time on radio, two companies launched completely new radio
services long after TV had been around for several years
(XM and Sirius).  I would say TV did not make radio obsolete
since radio is still going strong.  Radio is not a niche.

> CDs made vinyl obsolete.

True to some extent, but, there is still a strong contingent of
people who prefer vinyl and a resurgence of vinyl collectors
occurs from time to time.

> The automobile made
> horses obsolete.

As a primary mode of transportation, sure.  OTOH, horse racing,
and other recreational equestrian activities are still going strong.
In fact, in many ranching applications, horses are still preferred
over motor vehicles.

> If we can learn anything from history, it is that old
> technologies that were widespread almost always find a niche and hang
> around for a lot longer than people imagine. The ones that die out
> quickly are the ones which were never very widespread like Banyan  
> or vacuum tube computers or drum memory or 8-track tapes.
NetBEUI was pretty wide-spread at one point, and, has since
died out _VERY_ quickly.

If we can learn anything from history, it is that mass market moves
are incredibly difficult to predict and planning the obsolescence
of a high-demand technology is virtually impossible.


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