[ppml] Buying time...

Jason Schiller schiller at uu.net
Fri Apr 27 17:30:32 EDT 2007

comments in line.


On Wed, 25 Apr 2007, Tony Hain wrote:

> Jason Schiller wrote:
> > ....
> > Whatever remains non-IPv6 capable will have to be upgraded, and as IPv6
> > generates no new revune there is not much of a return on investment.
> For those cases it becomes a risk-avoidance justification:
> How much are you willing to pay for IPv4 in the open market to add new
> customers or services? 
> ...

Exactly.  Large ISPs will wait until the last moment to before spending on
hardware upgrades for the sole purpose of supporting IPv6 when it does not
generate new revenue.  To not wait puts you at a competitive disadvantage.

The longer IPv4 lasts, the greater the chance that other projects or
normal refresh will allow an ISP to upgrade more equipment, leaving less
legacy equipment to upgrade for the sole purpose of supporting IPv6 with
no ROI.

At the same time, ISPs want to be somewhat IPv6 capable with minimal
investments.  This allows them to test and certify their equipment,
configuration, and migration plan.  It allows them some capabilities to
offer IPv6 to customer who want to experiment, and the capability to offer
IPv6 to any customer where the business case covers the cost of the
upgrades.  It allows them to demonstrate IPv6 expertise, and provide
useful insite to shaping community policy and protocol standards. 

The problem with building a just in time network is making sure it is in
time.  This becomes more difficult as the amount of time required to
upgrade the network is large.  Projecting the run out time three years in
advance to start upgrades in time is not a sure thing.  Just consider the
two leading projections are 2.5 years apart.  

> ...
> What will the price be in the open market for a resource that is not
> considered property now, but even another part of Jason's organization gets
> away with effectively leasing for ~ $1.33/day per address? Hotels typically
> get ~ $5/day/address, and from what I hear globally, long term contracts
> already average ~ $1/day/address. Prices for scarce resources don't go down
> as they become harder to get ...

Yes, if IPv4 addresses are available, and they are cheaper than the cost
of upgrading the remaining network to IPv6, then those upgrades will be
delayed.  Those upgrades will progress when the projected price (projected
out buy the amount of time the remaining upgrades will take to complete)
is more than cost of upgrading the remaining network

> Tony

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