[ppml] countdown proposal

william(at)elan.net william at elan.net
Tue Apr 24 22:47:45 EDT 2007

On Tue, 24 Apr 2007, Tony Hain wrote:

> ...different codec, same chop ...
> We are on track to burn through just short of 1/3 of the remaining space
> this year. Given that we are on a compound growth curve rather than a flat

If you did polynomial approximation, what are your numbers? Or do you 
believe it to be  exponential growth? Have you compared estimates &
grown on per-region (RIR) basis?

BTW - Personally I think even Geoff numbers are couple years ahead of
when runout will actually happen (depending on how you define runout).
But I'm not sure 1-3 year difference and exact year in projection is 
really that important, event will happen in next decade anyway and 
everyone should know and be preparing for it.

> 10 /8's per year, there is not enough time left to implement this proposal.
> I understand Geoff's numbers show a longer timeframe, but 13, 15, 18 is what
> it looks like at the moment, so to implement a 2 year stop the event would
> have to happen early next year. That is not far enough down the road for
> people to react.

Maybe its for the good. When time runs out is when people start to
react, its just important to be ready and have all current computers,
OS and network equipment suporting v6 (even if its not configured).
The last one is however the one I'm most worried about - there are
way too many personal routers & NAT devices out there and most are
not capable of handling ipv6 and many do not know how to update them
even if software were to be available.

> Tony
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