william at elan.net
Thu May 12 07:15:28 EDT 2005
On Wed, 11 May 2005, Tony Hain wrote:
> Yes we are talking about an approximate 5 year timeframe, but you would be
> wasting your time to go down the reclamation path. Even if you do recover a
> few /8's, it will take years of fighting (likely an expensive effort in the
> courts) and at the end of the day you get back a month or two of run rate.
> The IANA run rate has been accelerating over the last 5 years and we are
> already burning close to 1 /8 per month. If the 5 year rate of growth holds
> (and given the ability to get public space for private use it will only go
> up) we will be at 1.5 per month in 3 years. So if you get back 3 /8's after
> the reclamation fights you will consume them faster than the current users
> of the space can renumber. A more prudent use of the time will be helping
> people with their IPv6 rollout.
What I see is situation about 10 years from now when ISPs will ask those
of their users who can support ip6 natively to only use ip6 and ISP would
be able to provide ip6->ip4 translation for legacy service. Such change
will allow to reclaim ip4 space, which will be used for users who can
only support ip4.
When enough users move to ip6, they begin to prefer ip6 native direct
connection for everything and so content providers accommodate. This
causes beginning of content providers who with only ip6 available
content and that would cause desire to move to ip6 for the userbase.
If this happens in the right period of time, there will not be exact
date when we ran out of ip6 and rather there would be some point when
need for new ip4 will finally slow down as ISPs are able to reclaim
some space for users who moved to ip6.
Note that to make this happen we need ability for users who only got
IP6 address to still access entire IP4 content space. I've heard of
at least one such project on linux conference year 1.5 years ago but
don't remember now what it was...
william at elan.net
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