[ppml] IPv6>>32

[Leo Bicknell]

This URL was just posted to Nanog, but it illustrates a business point I
feel many of the engineers are ignoring.

http://biz.verizon.net/pands/fios/features.asp

You can get Verizon service with "dyanmic IP" for $59.95/month, or
with "Static IP" (note, you get to chose 1 or 5 addresses, more
addresses are even more money) for $99.95/month.

So Verizon has a revenue stream of $40/month for supplying a static
address.

Now, I can't predict the future, but I can already see the arguments
being made by sales, marketing, and the like that in an IPv6 world
you should get a single address, and if you want more (1? 5?, are
we really going to hope for a /64?) it will be $40/month.  I've
never met a sales, marking, or board member who would give up
$40/month per subscriber "because the protocol designers say it's
a good idea".

All of which is why I'm extremely cynical that:

- A scheme where the user gets to pick their address, rather than having
  a specific one given to them by their provider will succeed (required
  for CGA).
- IPv6 NAT will not exist.  More than a few users would find the costs
  to support NAT far less than $40/month.
- Applications that require more than one address will flourish.  After
  all, if my application requires me to pay an extra $40 (or more) to
  my provider to work, I'll look for some other application that can
  work on a single address.
- That 64 bit address space is required, if business factors are going
  to limit the number of available IP's.

-- 
       Leo Bicknell - bicknell at ufp.org - CCIE 3440
        PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/
Read TMBG List - tmbg-list-request at tmbg.org, www.tmbg.org
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