[ppml] IPv6>>32

[Tony Hain]

Randy Bush wrote:
> >>> Yes stewardship is about resource management so that it is available
> >>> in the future, but is also about allowing current use of the resource
> >>> in ways that don't artificially constrain innovation to past practice.
> >> this deserves one concrete example where it is doing so.  otherwise
> it's
> >> all outer space where we have no idea what we could or should be doing
> >> other than the current v6 marketing smoke, build it and they will come.
> > One could argue that the smoke coming from the 'conservation is
> paramount'
> > crowd deserves at least one concrete example of why a well managed set
> of
> > 45 bits is insufficient ...
> 
> one answer is in four characters "IPv4."  which is one big reason why ipv6
> deployment is essentially negligible.

IPv6 deployment is gated by lack of applications and/or a crisis. The crisis
is looming despite Geoff's extended projection (which will only make the
panic more acute). His simple exponential on the 10 year data is biased by
the 98-00 lull in allocations from IANA as well as the more stringent
attitudes of the late 90's (the impact of the recent plan to relax further
and allow public IPv4 for private use will not show up for some time to
come). A second order polynomial fit on the most recent 5 years of the IANA
run rate is both more accurate and more indicative of how hard we are going
to hit the wall. The crisis that will drive rapid deployment of IPv6 is
coming, as are applications that will take advantage of it. The allocation
policy that allows very large organizations to be inefficient in their
management of space needs to be fixed before that happens, so quickly change
the H-D ratio for them to one that makes sense. 

Tony