[ppml] 2005-1 and/or Multi6

Owen DeLong owen at delong.com
Thu Apr 14 14:17:15 EDT 2005


>> I can remember modem manufacturers saying that when 2400bps modems
>> were state of the art.
> 
> Good example. Modems got faster and faster and then, at 56kbps, 
> development hist a brick wall. Today, there are no modems
> faster than 56kbps because the laws of physics come to play.

However, at one time, the modem developers were claiming that 2400
bps was the physical limit of telecom.  Later, those same developers
claimed that V.32 was the physical limit.  Now, it's 56k.  The
physical limits of the telephone system have not changed during
all of these changes in so-called physical limit.  What changed
was we found new ways to take advantage of the same physical
properties.  Sure, single-atom wide wire is a physical limit.
However, single molecule wire is many many many cycles of Moore's
law away from where we are today.  Today, most semiconductors are
made of fairly large molecules.  in the future, we may find ways
to use smaller molecules, or even atoms.  In the future, we may
find alternatives to wire.

The reason modems haven't advanced beyond 56k is because there is
no market to support the research to do so.  Beyond 56k, there
is ISDN, DSL, Frame Relay, ATM, etc.  Modem research stalled
because 56k is fast enough for those rare circumstances in which
a modem is still the best form of communication, and, those
circumstances are becoming increasingly rare, thus lowering the
potential value of said market.  It has much more to do with
the inability to create a market for the product than the ability
to achieve improvement.

Owen


-- 
If it wasn't crypto-signed, it probably didn't come from me.
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