[ppml] The WIANA registry

[Michel Py]

Bill,
 

>>> Michael Dillon wrote:
>>> because sometime around 2008 people will start returning
>>> IPv4 space because their needs will be met fully with IPv6.

>> Michel Py wrote:
>> This is science-fiction, especially in the ARIN region.

> Bill Darte wrote:
> Just out of curiosity....What is ficitional.....
> the 2008 date?

Yes. Backbone deployment is not seriously started; no IPv6 DFZ; no apps
yet. In this economy, five years to reclaim is sci-fi if there is no
customer demand and there is none in the ARIN region as obtaining v4
addresses is not difficult. Simple economics:

- I'm Joe Surfer. What does IPv6 bring me? Nothing. No prOn, no bootleg
mp3s, no warez, no search engine? Do I need IPv6? No.
(this is actually exaggerated. If I'm Joe surfer, the real deal is
"IPv6? never heard of it").

- I'm Joe ISP. Why should I spend millions upgrading my infrastructure
when my customer Joe Surfer does not ask for it?

- I'm Joe Telco. Why should I spend billions building a backbone when my
customer Joe ISP does not ask for it?


> Protocols won't be ready?

Protocol is not ready. No multihoming solution, no large scale
deployment.


> You don't believe that v6 will mature at all?

Yes it will, but the time frame is 10 to 15 years IMHO (5 years for the
protocol be mature; 5 more to deploy, 5 more to persuade people that
they can let v4 go).


> People won't trade in v4s?

Never. People will not ever trade their v4s for v6s. Although there are
some transition mechanisms the name of the game is dual-stack, and for
the foreseeable future there will be both v4 and v6. Only when
organizations are sure that they will not lose a single customer by
pulling the plug on IPv4 will they. And the same applies for Joe Surfer
too: until _everything_ that Joe Surfer needs including but not limited
to yahoo.com google.com ebay.com cnn.com whitehouse.com^H^H^Hgov
napster/kazaa/winmx Joe Surfer will keep v4.

The demand for v4 will not decrease until we have 98%+ deployment of
native IPv6. Yes this is problem and an egg-and-chicken one. It will
take off at some point, but in North America today, IPv6 is like ISDN: I
Still Don't Need.

Michel.