[ARIN-consult] Very long term no-IPv4 modeling (was: Re: Community Consultation: Future Direction for the ARIN Fee Schedule)

[John Curran]

On Oct 11, 2014, at 12:59 PM, John Curran <jcurran at arin.net<mailto:jcurran at arin.net>> wrote:

  Until such time as IPv4 address blocks are being actively returned by
  organizations (seeking to lower their fees), there is no impact to ARIN's
  receipts.  After that point, ARIN's annual ISP billings drop from approx
  $12.5 million to zero as increasing number of IPv4 resources are returned.
  While costs are expected to be lower at that time, some billing adjustment
  would certainly be necessary.

Regarding the potential need to revisit the fee structure in a post-IPv4 world,
depending on the IPv6 long-term revenues -

I did some followup modeling just to see what revenues look like presently
in a world where all ISPs obtain an IPv6 allocation and return their IPv4
resources.

Under the present fee structure, at the point of full IPv4 return the present
$13.6M ISP revenues would drop to approx $5.7M annually; under the
realigned IPv4 proposal the ISP revenues at full IPv4 return would be
approximately $3.0M annually.

End-user fees (IPv4, IPv6, and ASN maintenance) are approximately $2M
today; in a full IPv4 return situation, this would drop by approximately $560K
annually.

FYI,
/John

John Curran
President and CEO
ARIN


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