[ppml] NANOG IPv4 Exhaustion BoFRe: NANOG IPv4 Exhaustion BoF

Leo,

On Mar 7, 2008, at 6:57 AM, Leo Bicknell wrote:
> What's really interesting is if the black market turns into something
> where a significant percentage of law abiding citizens turn to the
> black market.

Very true.  And the reason folks turn to a black market is generally  
because the white market is unable to meet their requirements.  The  
reason this would be the case is typically because restrictions/ 
constraints/regulations make it too hard/expensive to obtain what you  
need from the white market.

> In short, it's my belief that even if there was no way to transfer
> resources the black market would never rise above a rounding error
> (although it may get somewhat larger than it is today); and is thus
> not an issue.

A lot depends on the continued demand for IPv4 post free pool  
exhaustion and the level of restriction that is applied in efforts to  
increase utilization efficiency.

If IPv4 post free pool exhaustion demand is a reasonable percentage of  
current demand and there is no way for that demand to be met through  
transfers, do you still posit a black market would be insignificant?

> Would the
> situation get so bad that these large corporations would risk
> punishment by the law, regulators, and their peers for turning to
> a black market.

Last I checked, ARIN did not have force of law or regulation and had  
little control over what peers do amongst themselves.  Perhaps more  
interestingly, it may be useful to remember that ARIN is not a  
monopoly in IPv4 address registration services.  There are already two  
other potential venues for transfer registration services (with  
proposed transfer policies that are significantly less onerous) and  
those venues are already viewed as legitimate by large corporations (I  
imagine the ones you speak of are already members).

Regards,
-drc