[ppml] NANOG IPv4 Exhaustion BoF

On Mar 6, 2008, at 4:26 PM, Geoff Huston wrote:

> Tony Li wrote:
>>
>> |It is probably worthwhile remembering that (at least in the ARIN  
>> case)
>> |we're talking about life after the exhaustion of the IANA IPv4 free
>> |pool.  The definition of "hoarding" will likely be subject to some
>> |debate.
>> |
>> |For example, there is a well known university sitting on a /8.  Is
>> |that hoarding?
>>
>>
>> Of course not.  But say if Warren Buffet decided to buy up every  
>> prefix,
>> drive up prices and then dole them out with an eye dropper, that  
>> would
>> distort the market.
>
> And drive the industry to IPv6 deployment.
>
> Geoff

I think we all wish this is how things will go.
But it could just as easily go the other way, and either vector could  
easily be pre-empted by major unwelcome surprises.
Randy's very educational demonstrations have revealed that there's a  
long way to go before anything is 100% certain.

In the mean time, new entrants are not going to be the ones to  
pioneer this effort, because they'd still have to wait for the big  
guys to get their act together in order to be able to benefit much  
from entering the business. So if anyone is to lead, it will be the  
big guys. Do we believe that they're holding out until they know they  
can monetize their future IPv4 surplus assets?  Do we believe that  
they're simply unable to afford the transition unless they can  
extract large sums from the IPv4 trade? Who is going to provide those  
sums, if not other big operators? Or do we think that adding a seven  
digit number to the cost of starting up will fill the gap without  
sparking internal rebellions and external interventions?

One could also say that OPEC and increasing "real" oil scarcity is  
leading to the adoption of hydrogen fuel cell technology. In fact one  
could have said that back in the early 1970s too; we could still be  
saying in 20-30 years from now. Burning bridges behind you when the  
future is still uncertain just doesn't seem like prudent planning to  
me...

TV