[ppml] Policy Proposal: Decreasing Exponential Rationingof IPv4 IP Addresses

On 2-sep-2007, at 18:00, <michael.dillon at bt.com>  
<michael.dillon at bt.com> wrote:

>> A few = generally 2 or 3 years. Is that enough to call a trend?

> If your data is monthly or weekly, then yes.

Have a look at the monthly data since 2006 and tell me if you can  
spot a trend:

                     14.05 M  2006-01
                     15.46 M  2006-02
                     19.02 M  2006-03
                     11.68 M  2006-04
                     15.01 M  2006-05
                      9.54 M  2006-06
                     21.43 M  2006-07
                     10.61 M  2006-08
                     15.29 M  2006-09
                     10.27 M  2006-10
                     20.30 M  2006-11
                     10.14 M  2006-12
                     16.59 M  2007-01
                     16.92 M  2007-02
                     20.75 M  2007-03
                      8.52 M  2007-04
                     20.08 M  2007-05
                     19.03 M  2007-06
                     21.12 M  2007-07
                     16.92 M  2007-08

>> You can arrive at pretty much any outcome by just selecting
>> the right start date.

> But can you find macroeconomic explanations to reinforce your  
> choice of
> a starting date, and your choice of a trend? Unless you can tie your
> numbers to macroeconomic triggers, they are just meaningless numbers.

Well, you wouldn't want to jump in at either the height of the boom  
or the depth of the bust, so you need to start in 2002 or so or  
before 1999...

>> But 1995 was the first year with growth
>> after the introduction of CIDR so we only have 12 years.
>> It's just not enough to come up with something better than 5
>> - 25 % growth per year = running out between Q3 2011 and Q3 2013.

> Instead of playing amateur statistician, I suggest that you give the
> data to a professional and see what they say.

The data is there for everyone to download, so professionals: have at  
it.

But my "amateur" take is that the data is simply to volatile and  
there have been too many fundamental changes (CIDR, broadband, .com  
boom, telecom bust) in too short a time to arrive at a real prediction.

But in another couple of years it doesn't matter anymore because  
we'll be so close that we know for sure we'll run out soon.