[ppml] Policy Proposal: Decreasing Exponential Rationing of IPv4 IP Addresses

ARIN received the following policy proposal. In accordance with the ARIN
Internet Resource Policy Evaluation Process, the proposal is being
posted to the ARIN Public Policy Mailing List (PPML) and being placed on
ARIN's website.

The ARIN Advisory Council (AC) will review this proposal at their next
regularly scheduled meeting. The AC may decide to:

   1. Accept the proposal as a formal policy proposal as written. If the
AC accepts the proposal, it will be posted as a formal policy proposal
to PPML and it will be presented at a Public Policy Meeting.

   2. Postpone their decision regarding the proposal until the next
regularly scheduled AC meeting in order to work with the author. The AC
will work with the author to clarify, combine or divide the proposal. At
their following meeting the AC will accept or not accept the proposal.

   3. Not accept the proposal. If the AC does not accept the proposal,
the AC will explain their decision. If a proposal is not accepted, then
the author may elect to use the petition process to advance their
proposal. If the author elects not to petition or the  petition fails,
then the proposal will be closed.

The AC will assign shepherds in the near future. ARIN will provide the
names of the shepherds to the community via the PPML.

In the meantime, the AC invites everyone to comment on this proposal on
the PPML, particularly their support or non-support and the reasoning
behind their opinion. Such participation contributes to a thorough
vetting and provides important guidance to the AC in their deliberations.

The ARIN Internet Resource Policy Evaluation Process can be found at:
http://www.arin.net/policy/irpep.html

Mailing list subscription information can be found at:
http://www.arin.net/mailing_lists/

Regards,

Member Services
American Registry for Internet Numbers (ARIN)


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Policy Proposal Name: Decreasing Exponential Rationing of IPv4 IP Addresses

Author: Dean Anderson

Proposal Version: 1

Submission Date: 8/18/07

Proposal type: new

Policy term: renewable

Policy statement:

ARIN will ration the remaining available IP Address Space according to a
decreasing exponential function in the family of e^(-x), where the
ultimate function and factors are chosen to ensure that the remaining IP
address space lasts for at least 10 years.
This function will be used to limit the IP Address space allocations.
If IP Address Space becomes available (e.g. via return), the ration can
be recalculated.  However, Ration calculations will not be based on
projected or anticipated returns. Contested IP Address Space will also
be excluded from the amount of available Address Space for ration
calculations.

Rationale:

Two reports[1,2] project that IP Addresses will be exhausted around
March 2010.

* Both reports agree that if IP Addresses continue to delegated at the
present rates, we will run out of space in March 2010.

* Everyone seems to agree that depletion will be a very bad event.

* It is therefore imperative to begin rationing to slow down the rate of
new delegations to conserve the available address space.

* It is necessary to do this now. One can't start rationing after the
resources run out.

Sudden IPv4 IP Address Exhaustion is expected to cause sudden disruption
and discontinuity in business operations and planning.  As with other
limited resources, the mere anticipation of exhaustion will lead to
hoarding and other behaviors that increase the harm of a sudden exhaustion.

Rationing on a decreasing exponential will essentially prevent total
exhaustion and will gradually decrease the rate of IP Address delegation
so to alleviate the harms of a sudden stop in IP Address delegation.

Prevention of IPv4 IP Address Exhaustion will help ensure a smooth
transition to IPV6.

Rationing helps ensures that IP Address space remains available to
future needs.


[1] http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html
[2] http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/ipv4-pool-combined-view.pdf

Timetable for implementation: Immediate