NAIPR Message

Forcible reclamation?

Karl Auerbach supposedly said:
> > There are three related issues the registries are getting hit over the
> > head to fix:
> > 
> > 1) limitiation on address space
> > 
> > 2) limitations of router forwarding table space
> > 
> > 3) limitations of router CPU for processing updates.
> > 
> > While my understanding is that the current criticality ordering of
> > these resources is 3, 2, 1, this does NOT mean that limitation on
> > address space is not a concern.  Revocation would simply mean that it
> > would continue to be third in the prioritization.
> That's a very good characterization of the issue.  (I wish I could be
> that accurate and concise.)
> In terms of when one hits the wall on #1, Frank Solensky of FTP Software
> has been doing projections for a couple of years regarding when address
> space prefixes run out.  And he's projecting a very long time (the year
> 2015 sticks in my mind) for exhausion of classic class b and c chunks. His
> last projection is perhaps a close to a year out of date.  (One would hope
> that ipv6 or nat would be more widely deployed by then ;-)

As I recall Franks last predictions came in at 2008 +/- 5 years.  One thing
to note about those predictions is that Frank worked off of Internic
allocations and didn't have APNIC or RIPE data (if I am wrong please
correct me Frank, but this point does stick in my mind), so from the data
he used he didn't know that RIPE and APNIC were close to filling their
previously assigned blocks and would need large delegations of /8's.  These
large type of allocations put large spikes in the curves and certainly
hasten the exhaustion problem. 

--->  Phil