ARIN-PPML Message

[arin-ppml] "Leasing" of space via non-connectivity providers

On 2/4/2011 5:48 PM, Owen DeLong wrote:
>>
>> And there is an ENORMOUS amount of IPv4 tied up with end users right
>> now.  Once the end users start shifting and letting it go, there
>> will be tons of IPv4 available for hosting companies.  If for example
>> the cellular carriers were to sunset their 3G networks tomorrow then
>> there would be no IPv4 shortage.
>>
> Not to rain on your parade or anything, but, once the end users have
> shifted to IPv6 and deprecated their IPv4, what use is IPv4 to content
> providers? Content providers need to provide the content to end users
> for it to be useful, no? If the end-users are all on IPv6, I don't think IPv4
> will help so much with that.
>

I doubt that they all are going to shift at one time.  And even when 90% 
of them have shifted there's still going to be a few holdouts.

I am dead serious, I actually took a support call a few years ago from a
guy running the following:

http://www.armory.com/~spectre/cwi/hl/

and he actually said that the 128 was a -better- machine than a modern
Windows system.  Quit laughing!!!!  I'm serious!!!

>> The IPv4 "value" curve is going to be very, very sharp.  Over the
>> next few years as supplies tighten the value of IPv4 will go up, but the moment that end users start accepting and using IPv6 then the value of IPv4 will collapse.
>>
> s/years/months/
>

Heh

> The value curve on IPv4 addresses will also serve as an incentive to deploy IPv6.
>

Actually I think it's much more the uncertainty of supply than the price 
that is the incentive.

Businesses (at least, businesses in America) do not have a problem with
designing and building products, even expensive products, that require
an expensive or limited item to function.

But nobody builds products that require things that might not be 
available from time to time, regardless of the expense.  At least,
not products for the general public.

Take for comparison, gasoline-burning cars and propane powered cars and 
trucks.

Propane is in every city if you are willing to pay enough.  In practice, 
only a handful of gas stations can dispense it into a vehicle.  As a 
result owners of propane=powered vehicles never know if in any given 
situation there is a gas station around that has a propane tank.  It is 
the uncertainty of knowing if a supply will be available that killed the 
propane-powered vehicle market.

This is why the IPv4 shortage is going to kill IPv4 so quickly, because
the mass-market CPE vendors are going to eventually start getting 
support calls from people who live in po-dunkville with a one-horse ISP 
in town who for the moment is out of IPv4 but they have IPv6 available.
When that happens even the dumbest CPE vendor will throw the towel in on 
IPv4.

But once the stampede of the herd happens there's going to be plenty of 
people still around, running old software, old hardware or whatever, 
that will be IPv4 only.  And since IPv4 will be plentiful, they won't 
have any incentive to switch as long as they can keep cannibalizing the 
computer wrecking yards (ebay, etc.) for parts for their setup.  So
while the masses will go to IPv6, there will be a minority that will 
persist on IPv4 for many, many years.  The major
content providers will still want to service those guys.  And so
they will keep IPv4 around to do it.

In a way the situation is like bicycles in a city.  It is impossible for 
all traffic in a city to move from cars and trucks to bicycles.  But it 
is possible for a minority of commuters to use bicycles.  So, these 
folks are tolerated to the extent that some accommodations are made for 
them, a bike path here and a bike rack there.  And the mass-marketers 
make a little bit of money selling BSO's (bicycle-shaped objects) so 
most of them have a rack of BSO's and a rack of bicycle lights and other 
mostly useless bike accessories.  IPv4 will probably end up like that on 
the Internet - the occasional accommodation make for it here and there. 
  It will never go away completely, but it will never be possible for it 
to carry the Internet like it does today.

Ted

> Owen
>
>