There is no reasonable way to correlate the reality that APnic handed out
2.3 /8's in the last 2 months, and are sitting on ~3, with the idea that
they will survive until July/Aug. The only way you can get there is a linear
projection off of a long data history to drop the slope below 1/2 /8 per
month. Events will occur well before July.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net [mailto:arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net] On
> Behalf Of Chris Grundemann
> Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2011 12:46 PM
> To: Lee Howard
> Cc: arin-ppml at arin.net
> Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] projections
> On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 13:23, Lee Howard <spiffnolee at yahoo.com> wrote:
> > Silence on PPML for two days?
> > Nothing going on that people want to talk about on PPML?
> > For those who missed it, this chart is interesting:
> > http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg
> A note on that graph from the horse's mouth that is worth considering,
> especially as it relates to inter-RIR transfer policy:
> "This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows
> the predicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy
> (whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the
> event will occur in that particular month.
> The assumption behind this graph is that the barricades will go up
> across the regions and each region will work from its local address
> pools and service only its local client base, and that as each region
> gets to its last /8 policy the applicants will not transfer their
> demand to those regions where addresses are still available. Its not
> possible to quantify how (in)accurate this assumption may be, so
> beyond the prediction of the first exhaustion point (which is at this
> stage looking more likely to occur in July 2011 than not) the
> predictions for the other RIRs are highly uncertain."
> > But I caution readers to temper it with this chart:
> > http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/predict.png
> > (i.e., accelerating demand is likely to trigger those events sooner)
> > Lee
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