ARIN-PPML Message

[arin-ppml] Comcast

None of this is official, but, it is baed on my observations of the various
projections and the industry trends.

The closest thing I've seen to a clock is:
		http://ipv6.he.net/statistics/

This sort of has hands and is a liberal artistic license inspired by
the corpus clock (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCqGtvTA36k).


On Nov 8, 2010, at 6:26 PM, Ronald F. Guilmette wrote:

> 
> In message <206001cb7f91$64b8f6e0$2e2ae4a0$@com>, 
> "Warren Johnson" <warren at wholesaleinternet.com> wrote:
> 
>> I simply think it is intriguing that a large evangelist and proponent of
>> ipv6 adoption required a gigantic allocation.  It demonstrates the
>> complexity of the issue.
> 
> 
> Just curious... Who is the official keeper of the IPv4 doomsday clock,
> and how much closer to midnite does this allocation put us?
> 
> (I see a couple of things out there that look sort-of like IPv4 doomsday
> counter-downers, but nothing that's really clock-looking.  I'd like to
> see a real clock someplace, with hands.  I guess that if one takes the
> whole of the IPv4 space as being 12 hours, then I guess that we are
> already well past 11 PM, yes?)

Way way way past... Depending on which definition of doomsday
you want to use...

Definition 1: The day IANA issues the last 5 /8s to the RIRs

	By that definition, it is approximately 11:58

Definition 2: The day the first RIR approves but cannot satisfy
	a request for IPv4 addresses due to lack of available addresses
	in RIR inventory with no ability to gain more from IANA.

	By that definition, it is approximately 11:54

Definition 3: The day the first RIR can no longer provide even
	a minimum allocation (APNIC = /24, ARIN = /24, AfriNIC = /24,
		RIPE = /32, LACNIC I'm not sure).

	By that definition, it is approximately 11:45

Definition 4: The day the first RIR can't satisfy a median-sized (for that RIR)
	request.

	By this definition, it is approximately 11:50

Definition 5: The day NO RIR can satisfy a median-sized (for that RIR)
	request.

	By this definition, it is approximately 11:35

Definition 6: The day NO RIR can satisfy any request for IPv4 space.

	By this definition, it is approximately 11:20

Owen