[arin-ppml] ARIN IPv4 Number Resource Inventory (was: PP 124 Preliminary Info)

[Bill Sandiford]

Thanks John:

I knew it was a tough question that didn't have a simple answer.  The answer given is much appreciated.

Regards,
Bill

> -----Original Message-----
> From: John Curran [mailto:jcurran at arin.net]
> Sent: Thursday, December 30, 2010 8:44 PM
> To: Bill Sandiford
> Cc: arin ppml
> Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] ARIN IPv4 Number Resource Inventory (was: PP
> 124 Preliminary Info)
> 
> On Dec 30, 2010, at 7:50 PM, Bill Sandiford wrote:
> 
> > John:
> >
> > Do we know what ARIN's current IPv4 issue rate is?
> 
> Bill -
> 
>   You'll get very different answers depending on the time
>   period you pick to rate average. The IPv4 issue rate over
>   the last few years for ARIN has been on or under 2 /8's
>   per year (data through '09 is here: 64K /24's = /8,
>   <https://www.arin.net/knowledge/stats.pdf>)   If you
>   want to consider the rate over CY 2010, it's been lower
>   but increasingly rapidly towards the end of the year
>   <https://www.arin.net/knowledge/statistics/index.html>
>   Note that there are quite a few factors that make the
>   "current rate" a horrible predictor: it does not take
>   seasonality of requests into account, nor does it show
>   the human factors impact of various policies passing
>   (until well after the fact when they show up in the
>   actual allocations made.)
> 
>   FYI - For those who really want some raw data, it is all
>   available via the ARIN-issued mailing list (also listed
>   on that web page.) Feel free to run the actual daily
>   allocations into whatever model you feel most appropriate...
> 
>   If you'd like an estimate based on my own judgement of
>   the most recent activity, the current "instantaneous"
>   issue rate is probably closer to one /8 every two to
>   three months (which implies about 9 months from IANA
>   depletion to ARIN depletion.)  I hesitate to state even
>   that much publicly, since a handful of requests can
>   dramatically impact that outlook in *either* direction.
>   Going into 2012, any parties that want to continue grow
>   their Internet business should be serious looking into
>   IPv6 and (if needed) the limited options that will exist
>   for IPv4 address transfer.  This is not drill: we are
>   going to fully deplete the available IPv4 address pool
>   in the very near future.
> 
> Best wishes,
> /John
> 
> John Curran
> President and CEO
> ARIN
> 
>