[arin-ppml] Policy Proposal 2008-6: Emergency TransferPolicyforIPv4 Addresses - Last Call

[Leo Bicknell]

In a message written on Mon, Jan 05, 2009 at 08:42:06AM -0600, Kevin Kargel wrote:
>    I guess I am still waiting for someone to come up with the killer
>    application for IPv6.  Or a marketing scheme... get this new
>    service/speed/whatever if you sign up for IPv6.  Of course you have to
>    have IPv6 deployed to sell it as part of a service.

I think it's quite likely we'll see the following offered by various
ISP's:

* Replace your hardware at your cost and get faster speeds, along with
  IPv6.  Cable companies are particularly well poised for this offering,
  IPv6 requires DOCSIS 3.0, which also allows them to offer more speed
  in the same frequencies.  I totaly expect offers like "If you buy a 
  new DOCSIS 3.0 cable modem and self install your speeds will
  automatically go from 8/1 to 12/2, and you'll get IPv6 for free!".

  Note, this also works for traditional ISP's, who can also make margin
  on it; "The managed service router you purchased from us is now 8
  years old, and can't support new technology.  Buy a new one from us
  and we'll configure it ready to drop in place, complete with IPv6
  support.  Order now and we'll bump the CIR on all your frame PVC's by
  10% for the same price."

* Upgrade to IPv6 and we won't rate shape for enforce transfer limits on
  your IPv6 traffic for the next 12 months!

* Return the IPv4 /24 to us that we provided you with your service, and
  in return we'll ship you a brand new 2800 to replace your 2500 for
  free, preconfigured for IPv6 with your own /48.

There's hundreds of other creative things that could, and I'm sure will,
be done.

>    I am afraid the major driver will be one of two things.  Either
>    someone will offer porn content on IPv6 that is not available on IPv4,
>    or people will find that IPv6 P2P file sharing will not have the
>    restrictions or problems that it does on IPv4.  If either of these
>    comes to pass then the public will clamor for IPv6.

Both of those have already happened, as well documented on NANOG.

While it is possible that we could have taken a different path to this
point as an industry, moving on things like ubiqitous IPSec end to end
and thus driving IPv6 from an application perspective the reality is we
didn't.  IPv6 is IPv4 with larger numbers.  As such there is not, and
never will be a "killer app" that drives it.

IPv4 exhaustion will be the driver, and likely the only one.

-- 
       Leo Bicknell - bicknell at ufp.org - CCIE 3440
        PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/
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