[arin-ppml] Thinking of other options

Hello All,

In an effort to spur some discussion on ppml, I wanted to offer the
thought below. 

Regardless of whether there is a black market, or a paid transfer
policy, it is very difficult to see a sufficient supply of IPv4
resources surface in an IANA depleted model, for the large ISP. This
means that the large ISP will hit the wall first, and hit it the
hardest. 

There is no way around the fact that this particular group already needs
to be well into their transition plans, because they will be unable to
obtain adequate amounts of IPv4 resources, in the foreseeable future. It
is also this group who is more able to bear the burden of working with
equipment vendors, and software developers, to push the necessary
momentum towards IPv6.

A preferred model would not be to prolong the availability of IPv4
resources, but rather to make sure all groups have reasonable access to
these resources, until sufficient momentum has shifted towards IPv6. It
is the largest IP consumers who will drive the vendors, and develop the
market for IPv6 enabled equipment. It is the smallest organizations who
need to remain on IPv4 until the shift has gained the necessary
momentum. 

Unfortunately, it didn't matter that the teacher provided an extra week
to study for the exam. The majority of the students never studied until
the night before the test. The reality is the momentum towards IPv6
likely won't happen until after the IANA pool is depleted and the
largest IP consumers hit the wall.

Considering what has been mentioned so far, a number of possible
policies are listed below. The intent of this email is to not focus on
any one point, but to take the overall approach into consideration. The
main consideration is to solidify how allocations are made to provide a
window for those without resources to survive until those with the
resources can build the necessary momentum in the marketplace. 


===== Pre-IANA Depletion =====

* No paid transfer policy.

* Allocation policies continue as they are. Based on need, proving prior
utilization. 

* No more multiple accounts. 
An organization cannot create an additional orgid if the organization
currently holds General Membership. 

* Legacy space considered. ARIN would look at legacy allocations when
considering need for ARIN requested resources. This consideration would
exist regardless of whether the legacy resource is associated to an
orgid or under RSA. This is not about trying to reclaim any legacy
resource. Only in justifying need for an ARIN allocated resource.


=== ARIN remaining reserve equivilent to a /8 ===

* Make the maximum allocation a /18. 
This would continue to serve the needs of 95% of the organizations
needing address space. The top 5% of the consuming organizations could
still get the max allocation, but would not be able to immediately
deplete the remaining pool by being bound to the max window mentioned
below.

* Make the allocation window minimum six months.
No matter the need, an org account cannot get an allocation more
frequently than every six months. This would put the largest
organizations on the hook first to move to IPv6, while buying time for
the smaller orgs whose needs would continue to be met by the current
policies. This could also stretch out the remaining IPv4 space for
another year, which is not the goal, but allows for the momentum to
occur where needed.

============================================


The other thought is that this may not eliminate the need for a paid
transfer, but could eliminate a considerable amount of speculation and
deaggregation. There is no need to shop around for smaller blocks when
the needs of +90% of the market can be served by the Registry through
normal allocations. The largest demand would be from the largest
providers who would be spending the money for larger aggregates and/or
to buy several smaller ones that can be put back together.

By isolating the demand from the majority of the organizations, it could
potentially play out that the largest organizations create the momentum
towards IPv6 before the rest of the IP consumers need to turn to paid
transfers.

Some could argue that this impedes the larger organizations from equal
access to resources, but they would have the same access as everyone
else, in an environment of a depleted resource. 

Dan Alexander
Comcast Cable
ARIN AC