[ppml] "Who's afraid of IPv4 address depletion? Apparently noone."

[Michael Smith]

On Feb 9, 2008, at 9:35 AM, Paul Vixie wrote:

> jcurran at istaff.org (John Curran) writes:
>
>> At 10:05 AM -0500 2/9/08, Howard, W. Lee wrote:
>>> I'm an ISP customer.  My IPv4 network isn't growing (maybe
>>> I add a /28 per year).  Tell me why I care about IPv6.
>>
>> You don't, until some ISP is wedged in such a tight corner that
>> they need to connect new customers with just IPv6 (because
>> they can't seem to obtain&route additional IPv4 space at any
>> realistic cost).
>> ...
>
> so there's an opportunity here for IPv4-rich ISP's to delay their
> own IPv6 transition, including dual-stack, so as to acquire customers
> and cash flows from IPv4-poor ISP's, during a transition period that
> can be deliberately extended by such delay?
> --  
> Paul Vixie

Indeed.  As a smaller hosting company, I have need for a /19 every 12  
months or so.  My guess is I *might* be able to get one more before  
the pool is gone, given the rate of uptake from the big guys.  I'm  
implementing IPv6 now across our network, but no one is requesting  
IPv6 services (well, one guy for testing).  So, here's the scenario I  
see.

1) None of the big content players implement IPv6 because "there is no  
demand."
2) None of the big eyeball providers get full-on IPv6 support for any  
number of reasons.
3) IPv4 addresses run out
4) (1) and (2) above have a reasonable reserve to carry them for some  
period of time.
5) Smaller content providers have to start putting hosts on IPv6 only  
because they're out of addresses.  New customer doesn't sign up  
because they know that they are not reachable by most folks.  Since  
most of our sites are SSL-enabled, we really can't use shared-IP  
resources for these hosts, so this is a very real problem.
6) Little provider tanks or is purchased for pennies on the dollar.

The is not a problem that is going to be solved by a bunch of small to  
medium size providers taking up the torches and threatening to burn  
down the village.  If the big players, both on the network and content  
side don't take the lead and start implementing and espousing the  
benefits of IPv6 it's going to be hell for the rest of us.  I hope  
this is not the business plan of bigger players.

Regards,

Mike Smith
Adhost Internet, LLC