[ppml] Policy Proposal: Decreasing Exponential Rationingof IPv4 IP Addresses

On 3-sep-2007, at 10:32, <michael.dillon at bt.com>  
<michael.dillon at bt.com> wrote:

>> Have a look at the monthly data since 2006 and tell me if you
>> can spot a trend:

> Why? Geoff Huston has already done this at
> http://www.potaroo.net/presentations/2007-07-23-ietf69-intarea-v4.pdf

Ok. This looks fairly smooth: whether any given month sees 10 or 20  
million new addresses doesn't mean much relative to the ~ 2.5 billion  
already given out.

> If you look at slide 14, it seems pretty close to a linear trend.

You have to remember that in 2005 and 2006, almost exactly the same  
number of addresses was given out, hence the linearity. However, 2007  
so far is noticeably higher, which doesn't show up. If you go back to  
before 2005, things look very different.

I'm not sure what the number on the Y axis are, by the way.  
Apparently, on january first this year, we were at about "163".  
However, the total amount of address space given out to end-users/ 
LIRs/ISPs at that time, excluding the IANA free space and the RIR  
space that wasn't further delegated, was 2407 million addresses,  
143.5 /8s. There are 3707 million usable IPv4 addresses = 221 /8s, so  
the projection on this slide would indicate complete IPv4 depletion  
somewhere in 2013.

> The steps in the chart are the result of pent up demand being
> satisfied,

How can you have pent-up demand for IP addresses??